Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, Tariff Shocks & Gold’s Technical Outlook

Gold enters the week on shaky ground, down 5% from its April peak NEAR $3,500 per ounce. HSBC notes fading momentum, leaving the metal vulnerable to fresh catalysts. Two critical events loom: the June Fed minutes release and the July 9 tariff deadline, which could dictate gold’s next move around the $3,300 level.

The Fed minutes are expected to shed light on policy projections and inflation trends. Market sentiment leans toward a September rate cut rather than July, with futures pricing in just two quarter-point reductions this year. Powell’s cautious stance reflects concerns over tariff-driven price pressures.

Technically, Gold hovers below its 50-day moving average at $3,311. A breakdown could trigger a slide toward $3,248, while dovish surprises may reignite bullish sentiment.

Trade tensions add another layer of volatility. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,322.55 on July 1 amid fears of reinstated tariffs (10–50%). Conversely, Optimism over trade deals lifted prices to $3,311 by July 7, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to Washington’s signals.